By JENNIFER LOVEN, Associated Press Writer
October 4, 2007
WASHINGTON - Over and over, President Bush confidently promised
to "solve problems, not pass them on to future presidents
and future generations." As the clock runs out on his
eight-year presidency, a tall stack of troubles remain and
Bush's words ring hollow.
Iraq, budget deficits, the looming insolvency of Social Security
and Medicare, high health and energy costs, a national immigration
mess the next president will inherit these problems in January
2009. With Bush's popularity at an all time low and relations
with the Democratic-led Congress acrimonious, he has little
or no chance of pulling off a surprise victory in his time
left.
"We're in a worse place than we were in 1999" before
Bush became president, lamented Matthew Dowd, a former pollster
and chief campaign strategist for Bush who has become disillusioned
with his old boss.
When Americans are asked to choose national priorities, they
most commonly name the economy, health care, the war in Iraq,
terrorism and gas prices. Consider the state of play on these
and other issues:
- The economy is relatively sound and deficits are falling
after peaking in 2004. But an entire presidency of red ink
has ballooned the overall federal debt from $5.7 trillion when
Bush became president to $8.9 trillion now. The Iraq war, including
providing medical care and disability benefits to veterans,
as well as expensive new programs like a Medicare prescription
drug benefit threaten to drive deficits back up. Economists
fear growing odds of a recession.
- The nation's health care spending, public and private, totaled
$1.5 trillion when Bush took office. By the time he leaves,
it is expected to be $2.6 trillion a 75 percent increase. Meanwhile,
the nation's number of uninsured has swelled, from 14 percent
of the population in 2001 to 16 percent last year, or a total
of 47 million people.
- Now in its fifth year, the Iraq war has claimed the lives
of more than 3,800 members of the U.S. military and more than
73,000 Iraqi civilians, wounded over 28,000 U.S. military personnel,
and cost nearly half a trillion dollars. Even if combat ends,
Bush says the United States will need to provide military,
economic and political support beyond his presidency and have "an
enduring relationship" with Iraq.
- No domestic terrorist attack has followed those of Sept.
11, 2001. But the intelligence community concluded in July,
nearly six years after the attacks, that al-Qaida has been
allowed to re-centralize and rejuvenate itself in Pakistan,
where the still-missing Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding.
- Energy prices are volatile, and high. The cost of a barrel
of oil has soared during Bush's presidency, from $29 to about
$80 a barrel. Gas prices averaged $1.45 a gallon in 2001 and
now are running about $2.80 a 93 percent increase.
- With 78 million baby boomers beginning to retire, Social
Security and Medicare move closer to insolvency each day. The
Social Security trust fund is expected to last until 2041,
while Medicare's will be exhausted much earlier, by 2019. Bush
tried to overhaul Social Security but couldn't find enough
votes even when Republicans controlled the Congress.
- Bush tried unsuccessfully to make dramatic changes in the
nation's immigration laws. There are an estimated 12 million
illegal immigrants in the country and a few hundred thousand
more come in each year.
- Bush promised to be "a uniter, not a divider," but
instead, the partisan warfare has gotten worse.
"It's hard to find something he has done that really
has improved the situation a great deal," said Stephen
J. Wayne, a Georgetown University presidential scholar.
On June 23, 2003, Bush said: "I came to the office of
the presidency to solve problems, not to pass them on to future
presidents and future generations. I came to seize opportunities
instead of letting them slip away." He was in New York,
for the opening swing of his 2004 re-election campaign.
This get-the-job-done approach to governing had been a bedrock
of Bush's first presidential race in 2000. The particular line
appeared only briefly, though, as a rebuttal to Democrat Al
Gore's Social Security plan. It was only with that New York
speech that it became a staple, as the president sought a return
to the White House in 2004 and stumped for fellow Republicans
in the 2006 midterm elections.
"It's definitely part of his self-image to be a doer,
and to be a person who throws the long pass and does big things,
not just small things," said Bruce Buchanan, a University
of Texas political scientist.
The image was effective with voters. It also hinted at Bush's
more sweeping political aspirations. He had hopes of governing
in a way that would attract new constituencies into the Republican
Party, transforming it into the nation's dominant political
force far beyond his time.
This new agenda for an ascendant GOP included rigorous national
educational standards, more market-based approaches to health
care and retirement, increased emphasis on religious providers
of government-funded social services, and radical changes in
immigration policy to enhance enforcement and legitimize millions
of illegals.
Only small bits have come to pass.
They include an expansion of health savings accounts, the
addition of the prescription drug benefit, along with other
modernizations, to Medicare, and increased government money
to religious charities.
A sweeping new education law now requires regular testing
of children and penalizes many schools that fall short. There
are serious doubts, however, that the law has enough support
to be renewed this year much less expanded as Bush wants.
On the foreign policy front, the president set the grand goal
of "ending tyranny in our world." But early signs
of progress on spreading democracy gave way to many setbacks.
And the entire project has largely been eclipsed, some say
hobbled, by continuing instability in Iraq.
The war looms over everything. The on-again, off-again debate
about bringing troops home is likely to divide Washington for
the remainder of Bush's presidency, leaving little room for
other things.
Former White House counselor Dan Bartlett acknowledged disappointment
that many big problems will remain unresolved when Bush leaves
office. But he said Bush will get credit, eventually, for at
least reaching for "fundamental, systemic reforms" on
tough issues.
Bartlett pointed to Bush's tax proposal as Texas governor
that would have shifted most public school funding away from
property taxes. He was unsuccessful, but Bartlett argued Bush's
approach was vindicated years later when the Texas Supreme
Court ordered the Legislature to find non-property tax funding
for the state's schools.
"Big change like that doesn't happen in the first go-round," said
Bartlett. "He will be remembered as the one who put the
issues at the centerpiece of the debate."
Dowd said Bush has only to look at himself for why he didn't
fulfill his promise. His unwillingness to admit mistakes and
inattention to building relationships with lawmakers of both
parties helped put success out of reach, Dowd said.
"Most of the responsibility I don't want to use the word
blame is at his doorstep. It has to be," Dowd said. "In
the end, he is the leader, elected twice, with Congress at
times in his own party."
___
EDITOR'S NOTE — Jennifer Loven covers the White House
for The Associated Press.
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