By Associated Press Writer Steven R. Hurst
February 8, 2009
WASHINGTON – The Obama administration promises sweeping
changes in American foreign policy, and some U.S. adversaries
are nibbling the bait.
Vice President Joe Biden hit most of the right notes in his
Munich speech this weekend, declaring — among a long
list of initiatives — Washington's readiness to push
the "reset button" with Russia, talk with rather
than browbeat Iran and revitalize the bruised NATO alliance.
U.S. troops are leaving Iraq. A more nuanced Afghan policy
is in the works. President Barack Obama won't rest without
progress on an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
At the 45th Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Biden
painted the global landscape in new colors, drawing stark contrasts
with the Bush administration, which had alienated many American
friends and deepened animosity among its enemies.
"The U.S. administration sent a very strong signal, and
the signal was heard," Russian deputy prime minister Sergei
Ivanov said Sunday.
Over the weekend, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani
spoke of a "golden opportunity for the United States" — suggesting
that if Washington was serious about conciliation, Tehran could
respond in kind. Larijani said the U.S. needed to change "to
a chess game instead of a boxing match."
Any changes in American strategy toward Russia, Iran or any
of the other international actors now at odds with the United
States could have huge political consequences. They would set
off an explosion of opposition from American foreign policy
traditionalists, neoconservative thinkers especially.
The Bush administration was guided by the blunt view that
America was the only superpower — after the collapse
of the Soviet Union — and had the economic resources
and military strength to insist that Washington's will be done.
That produced the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq in
spite of heavy opposition from most European allies — Britain
and, to a degree, Italy excepted. Iraq policy in turn has bedeviled
U.S. efforts to pacify Afghanistan and hunt down Osama bin
Laden in neighboring Pakistan. The Europeans have been far
from wholehearted in supporting that U.S. military effort,
which has gone seriously awry.
Then there's Iran. Since the Islamic revolution and the extended
crisis over the hostage-taking of American diplomats 30 years
ago, the one-time ally has become an implacable foe. And it's
a foe with serious ambitions, including the destruction of
Israel, support of anti-Israeli organizations like Hamas and
Hezbollah and construction of a nuclear arsenal.
Iran is bent on becoming a regional power in the Middle East
and its chances of success have been much advanced by events
in neighboring Iraq, where the U.S. ouster of Saddam Hussein
removed a major brake to Tehran's ambitions.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is fighting U.S. efforts to promote
NATO membership for countries that border Russia and were former
satellites or even republics of the old Soviet Union.
NATO expansion — which began in earnest under President
Bill Clinton — led the Bush administration to declare
plans to install a missile defense system in the Czech Republic
and Poland, compounding Kremlin anger and insecurity. While
Washington insists those missiles are designed to counter any
Iranian attack on Europe, even Russia, Moscow is not buying
the argument.
Finally, al-Qaida remains determined to continue its campaign
to knock the United States off keel. Many analysts fear bin
Laden's next assault will be even deadlier than the Sept. 11,
2001, attacks, including biological or nuclear weapons.
But Obama is in the midst of a honeymoon with most of the
rest of the Islamic world, which, for now, accepts his promises
of respect and evenhandedness after nearly a decade of believing
it was held in low esteem by the Bush administration. The Arab
subset of that world is likewise enthralled with Obama and
his energized efforts to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Serious progress on any of these foreign policy puzzles may
require:
- Backing away from NATO expansion and quietly letting the
Russians know plans for missile defenses in their former sphere
of influence are up for negotiation. Washington might demand
a less belligerent stand on Georgia, where Russia is threatening
to expand its military presence in two breakaway ethnic zones.
Obama might also win a reversal on Kyrgystan's recent decision
to boot the United States from an air base that is critical
to supplying American forces in Afghanistan. Moscow says Kyrgystan
made the decision independently, but the move coincided with
the Kremlin promising a huge loan to its economically failing
former republic.
- A tacit acknowledgment of Washington's readiness to accept
and respect Iran as a major player in the Middle East, but
only if Tehran obliterates its nuclear program, accepts Israel
as a recognized member of the neighborhood and ends support
for Hamas and Hezbollah.
- Successfully pressuring Israel to make peace with the Palestinians
by withdrawing to pre-1967 borders and sharing Jerusalem as
a capital. That would cement U.S. relations with the Arab world
and could empower the United States to make further demands
on isolating Islamic extremists, including al-Qaida.
Such strategic changes might convince the world Obama plans
to do more than just talk about a new era in U.S. foreign policy.
___
Steven R. Hurst is a former AP Baghdad bureau chief, has reported
on foreign affairs for 30 years and now covers the White House.
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